The truth behind the new AFL wildcard finals system and how many wins you'll need to make the top 10
Let's start with a bold statement: the new AFL wildcard finals system is a bit of a wild card itself. It's a controversial change that has sports fans buzzing, and it's important to understand the implications.
But here's the thing: it's not a real wildcard. In tennis, a wildcard is a player invited to a tournament who wouldn't or couldn't qualify otherwise. In American sports, it's a post-season qualifier who didn't win their division or conference.
The AFL's new system is a bit different. It's a top 10 system, where the 10 best teams make the finals. Before the normal finals system begins, the 7th and 8th-placed teams play each other, and the 9th and 10th-placed teams play each other.
So, what does this mean for the season? Well, it makes it even less likely for the 7th and 8th-placed teams to win the premiership. But on the bright side, more teams will have a chance to make the finals deeper into the season, and we'll get to watch two more finals! We love watching finals!
The odds are stacked against the 9th and 10th-placed teams winning the flag. It's roughly once per century, and even that seems generous. It'll make more sense once we expand to 20 teams, and we're back to the modern norms of half the competition playing finals.
Now, let's talk about the wins. For years, footy fans knew that 12 wins was roughly what you needed to make the top eight. But with the extra 23rd game each season and the expansion to a top 10, we need a new reference point.
So, how many wins should a team need to make the top 10? And how many wins will you need to avoid playing in the wildcard round? Let's find out.
What history says
We've collected 13 seasons of data since the AFL went to 18 teams. Based on those seasons, we know that 13 wins is the average total needed to make the top eight, while the average 10th-place finisher won just under 11.5 games.
The average 11th-place team won just under 11 games, so the benchmark is clear. If you win at least 11 games, you have a good chance of making the top 10 as a wildcard finalist, and more than 11 wins will almost always get you in.
We'd call 11 wins the new rule of thumb, roughly the equivalent of needing 12 wins in a 22-game season. It's the goal, and with anything extra, you should be safe.
To crack the top six and avoid the additional wildcard final, history says you need to win around 15 games.
What the projections say
According to the brilliant Wheelo Ratings website, a team winning 14 games in the 2026 season made the top six 57.8% of the time and was a wildcard team 42.1% of the time.
Between 12 and 13 wins, you're most likely to be a wildcard team, though if you can win a 13th game, you have some hope of sneaking into the top six (17.8%).
Winning 11 games is likely but not certain to be enough to make the top 10 – just under 60% in Whelan's simulations.
This roughly matches what the historic data tell us. Effectively, 11 wins is the new 12 wins – the minimum requirement most years to take the last finals spot.
When we played a 22-game season, 12 wins usually got you into the top eight. Now with a 23-game season, 11 wins will usually get you into the top 10.
Finals probability by wins
Here's a breakdown of the chances of making the top 10 based on wins:
- 9 wins: 2%
- 9.5 wins: 6.1%
- 10 wins: 18.1%
- 10.5 wins: 35.5%
- 11 wins: 59.6%
- 11.5 wins: 80.6%
- 12 wins: 92.1%
- 12.5 wins: 98%
- 13 wins: 99.5%
- 13.5+ wins: 100%
Both history and Whelan's numbers suggest you'll need around 14 wins to make the top six and avoid playing an extra wildcard final.
So, realistically, any team that doesn't go 14-9 or better isn't going to win the premiership.
Chance of making top six based on win total
Here's a breakdown of the chances of making the top six based on wins:
- 12 wins: 1.9%
- 12.5 wins: 6.6%
- 13 wins: 17.8%
- 13.5 wins: 35.9%
- 14 wins: 57.8%
- 14.5 wins: 79.4%
- 15 wins: 90.8%
- 15.5 wins: 98%
- 16 wins: 99.4%
The bottom line
You need 11 wins to make the top 10. Just like the idea of needing 12 wins to make the top eight, that's not a definitive statement.
Sometimes you'll miss out with 11 wins, and sometimes you'll make it with 10 wins. But 11 to make the top 10 is the new rule of thumb.
It's a bit silly knowing we can expect some teams with a losing record to make the finals from now on. In fact, it should happen at least once every two seasons.
But at least if you win more games than you lose (12-11 or better), you're almost certain to play finals. And you need 14 wins to make the top six.
But it's the same deal as above – it's at least 14 wins, and realistically, you want to win 15+ to feel secure.
