Hollywood's Old IP Playbook Is Dead: A Commentary on the Box Office Flops
The movie industry is experiencing a shift in audience preferences, and it's time to reevaluate the old IP playbook. The recent box office failures of Supergirl, The Mandalorian and Grogu, and Masters of the Universe are not isolated incidents. These films failed to resonate with audiences, despite having critical support and a strong IP foundation. The common thread among these flops is a lack of critical support, with scores that indicate a lack of enthusiasm from critics. This, in turn, affects audience reaction and financial success.
The rise of TV, streaming, video games, and other distractions has made it increasingly difficult for theatrical releases to compete for attention. The National Research Group's Cinema United study reveals that a 'habitual' moviegoer sees only six movies a year in theaters, making it challenging to attract audiences to take risks on new releases. The success of a film heavily relies on its ability to connect with people, and this is where the old IP playbook falls short.
Supergirl's attempt to conform to the character's history by shoving Kara into a uniform backfired. The film failed to court the young women who responded positively to projects like Wicked. The lack of freshness in the cosmic adventure element, which draws comparisons to Guardians of the Galaxy, further contributed to its underperformance. The surprise hits of 2026, on the other hand, offer freshness and draw upon popular Internet phenomena or generational anxiety, earning critical acclaim and financial success.
The industry is witnessing a transition from films sold on star power to franchises and critically acclaimed book adaptations. Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, for instance, is expected to be a huge hit, relying on pre-release hype rather than influencer screenings. The emergence of a more discerning audience and a redefined concept of 'IP' are at the core of these box office ups and downs. A brand name alone may not be sufficient to sell tickets, as evidenced by Supergirl's failure to resonate with viewers.
In conclusion, Hollywood's old IP playbook is dead. The industry must adapt to the changing preferences of audiences, embracing freshness, and critically acclaimed content. The future of the box office lies in stories that connect with people, offering a unique and engaging experience. It's time to rethink the approach to IP and focus on creating films that resonate with a discerning audience.
